The Lineup Shake-Up
Ozzie Albies has started every single game for the last 114 days, but tonight that streak ends. The Braves are gunning for a sweep of the Miami Marlins, and the manager made a bold choice to rest their star second baseman. Mauricio Dubon steps in to play the keystone and bat fifth in the lineup. This marks the first time Albies has been scratched from the starting lineup all season. According to Battery Power, the team is loading up on left-handed hitters to face right-hander Janson Junk.
The rest of the order stays mostly the same, but the math behind the moves is sharp. Austin Riley stays in the eight-hole while Dubon and Dominic Smith form a double-up of lefties right behind him. Earlier this year, Junk gave up three-run homers to these two players already. The Braves know exactly what they need to do to win this specific matchup.
Battery Power notes that the Marlins have not posted their lineup yet, which is a pattern they’ve kept for years. The opposition often struggles to get their act together before game time. The Braves have been ready since the first pitch.
Perez’s Quiet Run
While the bats get the attention, the pitching staff has been doing the heavy lifting on the mound. The Braves have won seven games in a row, and they’ve allowed four runs or fewer in their last eight outings. They’ve kept opponents to three runs or less in each of their last five games. Martin Perez is the man throwing the ball tonight to keep this streak alive.
Perez has been part of this fortuitous stretch despite some shaky starts earlier in the week. He had a rough outing against the Mets before the bullpen took over. But last Saturday, he dominated the Nationals with six strikeouts and no runs allowed over seven innings. That was his longest outing in nearly a calendar year.
Battery Power reported that Perez was not even scheduled to start that game until the original pitcher went down with a knee issue. He stepped in less than an hour before the first pitch and delivered a season-high performance. On the season, Perez has a 77 ERA-, which shows he is performing better than the league average.
The stats show a man who keeps his team in the game even when he doesn’t throw a perfect pitch. His aggregate performance is just fine, but his ability to eat innings is worth every penny of his $3.5 million contract. This year, he has delivered nearly 100 innings of decent starting pitcher output.
The Cost of Rest
Giving Albies a night off feels risky when you’re chasing a playoff spot, but the work done in the dugout matters more than the box score. Dubon has seen plenty of reps and knows how to handle the pressure of a sweep attempt. He is not a star, but he is a worker who respects the grind.
The Braves have built a culture where effort separates the good teams from the great ones. Albies has played every day, and his legs need a breather before the long stretch ahead. The team trusts Dubon to fill the gap without missing a beat. This is the kind of move that wins championships in October.
The Marlins have no lineup yet, but the Braves have a plan. They will hit lefties hard against a right-handed pitcher who has given them trouble before. The numbers say they have a .340 wOBA against Junk in limited attempts. That is a small sample, but it is enough to build a game plan around.
The series finale is set for tonight, and the stakes could not be higher. Martin Perez takes the mound for his second time facing Miami this season. The first time he faced them, he struck out 10 batters in just five innings. The Braves will need that same dominance to close out the series.
The game will be the second time Perez faces the Marlins this year. The first time was wild, with a 10/2 K/BB ratio in just five innings. He was charged with four runs, including a leadoff homer, but the Braves stormed back with six unanswered runs. History says this team knows how to win even when the pitcher gets hit early.
