Two Writers, Two Different Bowls for OU
The Oklahoma Sooners just wrapped up a 10-2 season and punched their ticket to the College Football Playoff. Fans are already expecting more, and sure, the squad looks stacked on paper with a top-10 preseason ranking. Yet ESPN’s latest bowl projections have them sitting on the outside looking in. This isn’t a fluke. Two writers at ESPN have placed Oklahoma in bowl games that fall short of the big stage. Mark Schlabach has the Sooners heading to the ReliaQuest Bowl in Tampa, where he sees them playing the Michigan Wolverines. Kyle Bonagura takes a different view. The Las Vegas Bowl matchup is projected by him to feature Oklahoma versus the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Both writers are well known for their work. They don’t guess lightly.
Last year, no writer selected Oklahoma for the playoff, a point worth noting. The team proved them wrong then. The offense underwhelmed for most of the season. Still, the Sooners found a way to win. This year, the expectation is that the offense will look much better. If that happens, it’d be surprising if they didn’t make the cut. But the current projections say they won’t. Yahoo Sports CFB reported these specific bowl matchups based on the latest ESPN data.
The Data Behind the Skepticism
Why would two experts doubt a team ranked so high? The answer lies in the schedule and the metrics. The Sooners face a brutal slate of games. They’ll play eight teams inside the top 25 of Bill Connelly’s SP+ metrics. Three of those opponents rank in the top 10. That is a heavy load for any team. The SP+ system measures efficiency. It adjusts for tempo and opponent strength. It is a predictive measure of sustainable play. It is not just a résumé ranking of past wins. ESPN Oklahoma reports that the Sooners rank No. 11 overall in these metrics.
The defense ranks 8th. The offense sits at 25th. Special teams are 33rd. These numbers show a good team, but maybe not a top-four team. The schedule includes Georgia, Texas, and Ole Miss. Those teams have high SP+ rankings. Georgia ranks 4th overall. Texas is 6th. Ole Miss is 16th. Beating these teams is hard. The analytics like Oklahoma, but a pair of writers are not so sure. They see a tough road ahead. The projections reflect that risk. They see the Sooners losing at least one or two key games that keep them out of the playoff.
Effort Over Hype on the Field
I have seen teams with better stats miss out. I have seen teams with worse stats make it. The number on a screen doesn’t win the game. Effort wins the game. The rep count in practice matters more than the rank. The film session after a loss matters more than the hype. The Sooners have elite talent at all three levels on defense. They have a healthy quarterback. They have an offense returning a lot of snaps. On paper, they look like a contender. But the work has to be there. The writers at ESPN are looking at the work, not just the name.
They remember the offense that struggled last year. They know how hard it is to fix that. They know the schedule is among the toughest in college football. If the offense does not click, the season could slip. A loss to Texas or Georgia could end the playoff dream. The projections assume a loss or two. That is a fair bet given the numbers. The Sooners have to earn every win. They cannot rely on the preseason rank. The fans know this. The writers know this. The only thing that matters is what happens on the field. The rest is just talk.
The season starts in a little over a week. The first game is against the UTEP Miners. That game is set for September 5 in Norman, Oklahoma. UTEP ranks 127th in the SP+ metrics. That is a win the Sooners should take. Then they face Michigan on September 12. That is a big test. The schedule keeps getting harder. The New Mexico game is on September 19. Then comes the Georgia game on September 26. The bye week is October 3. The Texas game is October 10 in Dallas.
