The Numbers That Saved The Blues
Joel Hofer finished the season with 11.7 Goals Saved Above Expected, a number that ranks 11th best among goaltenders who played more than 40 games. Before the Winter Olympics break, his .895 save percentage and 2.7 goals-against average in 30 games made him look like a top-five draft pick the Blues might lose. That didn’t happen. He flipped the script to go 12-2-2 with a .931 save percentage after the break. Jordan Binnington never recovered from his struggles, but Hofer did. He nearly saved the team from a playoff miss, though it came too little too late.
The Blues missed the postseason by a handful of points despite his heroics.
Nothing bad can be said about his play down the stretch, even if the turnaround didn’t arrive in time to salvage the season. Hofer has certainly established high expectations for next year because he is no longer the weak link in a lousy tandem. He became the only reason the team stayed relevant in March. Who else could have pulled that off?
A Contract Dance With High Stakes
Unless Binnington turns back the clock for his final season, Hofer must be the backbone. An injury could utterly derail any playoff hopes, so he needs to stay healthy. His contract adds another layer of pressure since he enters the final year of a two-year, $3.4-million annual average value bridge deal. He will need to be signed by next July 1. If not, the Blues face an offer sheet from another team.
As the salary cap goes up, Hofer will want to get paid. A strong season will certainly boost his earnings, but it will be a delicate dance between his camp and general manager Alex Steen. They must decide when to get a contract done and what the cap hit will be. The length of his stay in St. Louis remains a question mark. At 26 years old, Hofer is in the early days of his prime. By the end of the season, seeing him ranked as a top-ten starter would not be surprising.
The Only Path To The Postseason
Hofer cannot be average this time. He must be a top-ten starter or the Blues will fail again. Binnington is a former star, but he cannot carry the load alone. The team needs Hofer to repeat his 12-game run over the entire season. If last season’s stellar finish is anything to go off of, we can expect league average play at the very least.
But average is not enough to win a division.
The Blues need a true number one goalie to get back to the postseason. The clock is ticking on his current deal. If he signs a long-term extension, he locks in his value. If he waits, he risks an offer sheet that changes everything. The pressure is entirely on him to perform. No one else can save the Blues if he fails. The team needs him to be the backbone. He is the only one who can deliver. The fans know it. The front office knows it. Now Hofer just has to show it on the ice every single night.
