The One Stat That Changes Everything
Here’s what everyone’s missing. Fresno State won every single game last season when they ran the ball at least 32 times. That’s the magic number: eight wins, zero losses. They didn’t need a perfect passing attack to win; they just needed to grind out yards on the ground. Now they’re facing a USC team that looked shaky in the fourth quarter. The defense gave up 23 points late against San Jose State. If Fresno State hits that 32-run mark again, the script flips. The Trojans might not be as safe as the odds suggest.
According to Yahoo Sports CFB, the Bulldogs have a new quarterback named Khristian Martin. He’s a big guy at 6-4 and 230 pounds. He can throw the ball, but Matt Entz’s staff knows the real key. The team wins when it runs. San Jose State isn’t a running team, yet their quarterback Luke Weaver still found room to make plays when he took off. Fresno State has to do the same thing. They need to control the clock and keep USC’s offense on the sideline. Can they run enough to tire out a defense that’s already shown signs of fading?
Why the Defense Looks Weak
Let’s look at the Trojan defense. It was fantastic early on, but it fell apart late. The team got out to a huge 35-3 lead against San Jose State. It seemed the legs were missing during the fourth quarter. The secondary allowed way too many big plays. The offense was close to perfect before they took their foot off the gas. Now they face a Fresno State team that was one of the best defenses in the Group of Six last year. Although top cornerbacks departed, the coaching staff avoided targeting any sure-thing ones in the portal. This leaves a hole that a smart team can exploit.
According to Yahoo Sports CFB, the Trojans secured victory in the final five clashes with Fresno State. But the Bulldogs beat them 24-7 back in the 1992 Freedom Bowl. History shows it’s possible to win. The current team just needs to execute the plan. They need to run the ball and make USC’s defense work for every yard. Both sides of the ball require the offense to ignite immediately. A slow start could mean they get blown out. The stakes are high for a first game in the Pac-12. There’s no margin for error when you’re the underdog in your own conference debut.
The Quarterback Factor
USC has Jayden Maiava. He was fantastic in the last game. He finished 25-of-29 passes, tallying 286 yards and two touchdowns. He also ran for a touchdown. He was in total command. The offense didn’t even have star wide receiver Terrell Anderson from NC State. Even without him, the team looked close to perfect. Maiava can make plays, but can he do it for 60 minutes? The defense let down late against a medium-range passing game. Fresno State has to force USC to play from behind. If the Trojans get tired, the running game will take over.
The betting lines say USC is a 23.5-point favorite. The over-under is set at 51.5 points. The consensus confidence is only 2 out of 5. This tells you the oddsmakers aren’t sure either. The game is at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Friday, September 4, 2026. The kickoff is at 9:00 PM ET on FOX. This is the first time these two teams play in the new conference setup. Fresno State needs to be ready. They have a tune-up against Sacramento State and San Jose State next. USC gets a tune-up against Louisiana before starting Big Ten play at Rutgers. The real test starts now. If Fresno State runs the ball 32 times, they have a real shot. If they don’t, the Trojans will roll. It all comes down to one number.
