The Three-Run Trap
The math is brutal and it does not care about your feelings. When the Cubs score three runs or less, they sit at 9-37. That is a terrible record that proves they cannot win low-scoring slugfests. Last night they failed to break that curse. They need four runs to flip the script because they are 59-13 when they cross home plate that many times. Per Bleed Cubbie Blue, this specific stat defines their season. You cannot hope to win games when your offense goes quiet. The team must find a way to score early and often or they will lose this series right here in Kansas City.
Boyd on the Mound
Matthew Boyd is pitching like an ace again and that changes everything. Since returning from the injured list on June 25, he has posted a 2.40 ERA. He also holds a 1.192 WHIP which shows he keeps runners off base. The Cubs have won seven of his eight starts since that return. That is a clear sign the team backs him up well. He even pitched better on the road with a 2.57 ERA compared to his 4.54 ERA at Wrigley Field. Last year he threw seven shutout innings against these same Royals. The Royals will face Randy Dobnak who once drove for Uber and Lyft while trying to make the big leagues. He has a funny story about having five stars except for one four-star rating. He wishes he could find that person and ask why they gave him a low score.
Can They Bounce Back?
Since early July, the Cubs have not lost back-to-back games. That is a long time to go without a two-game losing streak. They are 17-8 since that last loss on July 10. But they have lost two in a row to the same team only once since then. That happened 29 games ago against the Cardinals at home. They have never lost two straight road games to the same opponent since June against Colorado. This team is on a 34-16 surge that started the day after losing to the Rockies. They are 26-23 in day games but only 7-11 on the road. The pressure is on to avoid a split in this series. The fans know the team is better than their 93-win pace suggests. They just need to fix the offense when the runs do not come. Do you think Boyd can shut down the Royals again like he did last year?
