The most surprising fact in college football right now is that the team everyone thought was the best, Ohio State, just lost at home to a team that wasn’t even the favorite in its own conference. On Saturday night, the Southern Cal Trojans beat the Buckeyes 30-18, a score that sends shockwaves through the entire Big Ten. This wasn’t a fluke or a lucky break. It was a dominant performance that exposed real cracks in a team that was supposed to be untouchable. The loss dropped Ohio State to 6-2 overall and 4-1 in the conference, leaving them in a dangerous spot where one more slip could end their season.
Luke Fahey’s debut start highlighted defensive struggles that Yahoo Sports deemed more troubling than the offensive results. The Buckeyes looked lost when it mattered most, giving up points that should have been stopped. Now they face a resurgent Oregon team on November 7, a matchup that could define their entire year. If Oregon wins, the conversation about Ohio State’s playoff chances goes quiet fast. The margin for error is gone.
The New Order in the West
While Ohio State stumbles, two other teams are rising fast to take their place. Indiana and UCLA are now the clear leaders in the conference race. Indiana sits at 8-1 with a 5-1 conference record, holding the top spot in the power rankings. They just beat Minnesota 23-16 in overtime, proving they can win the ugly games too. Their open date comes just in time, giving them a chance to rest players like Josh Hoover who need recovery time.
UCLA is right behind them at 8-0 and 5-0, with a massive 27-0 win over Nevada last week. The gap between the top two teams is razor thin, but Indiana gets the nod for now. Yahoo Sports observed that neutral-field forecasts generally leaned toward the Hoosiers. If these two meet in Indianapolis come December, it will be a game that decides the conference champion. That matchup feels like the most likely final game of the regular season.
A Muddy Middle Pack
The real story here isn’t just the top two, but the mess in the middle of the pack. There is a logjam of teams with two or three losses that are all fighting for the same few playoff spots. Oregon is 5-3 and just beat Northwestern 34-26, but they need a miracle to get back on track. They must beat Ohio State on November 7 to even start a conversation about the title. If they lose, their season is effectively over.
Iowa sits at 6-2 and just crushed Wisconsin 30-0, showing they can still dominate when they show up. They have the best chance to guarantee a nine-win floor, even with Kamari Moulton hurt. Then there is Southern Cal, now 7-2 and 4-2, who got the signature win they needed. They can score a bigger prize by beating Indiana after their bye week. is that truthfully, you could rearrange the teams from fourth to seventh in any order and defend it. The parity is insane.
This result changes everything for how we view the College Football Playoff hopes. The idea that one team could run away with the conference is dead. Indiana and UCLA are the teams to watch because they keep finding ways to win. They are the likeliest matchup for the title game. If Ohio State cannot fix their issues with complementary football, they will fall further down the list.
The next two weeks will give us the separation we need in this muddy middle. Minnesota only falls because others rise, and they face UCLA on November 7. Northwestern has to play Iowa, and Oregon has to play Ohio State. Every single game from here on out is a must-win for anyone with a shot at the title. The race is wide open, and the team that makes the biggest mistake will be the one left out.
Look at the schedule for the next few days. On November 7, Oregon travels to Ohio State, and Iowa heads to Northwestern.
