You know a team has turned into something special when losing two straight feels like a shock. That’s exactly what happened in Boston. After shrugging off a bafflingly bad first half, the Red Sox were the team to beat in the American League. Before the weekend, they’d won 27 of 30 games. Then they ran straight into the ice wall that is the Oakland Athletics. The West Sacramento nine rebounded to take the final two games of the series. A hard-fought 2-1 defeat against the Toronto Blue Jays on Monday (a game that prolonged the sudden skid to three) means the streak is over for now. But don’t let those losses fool you; it’s time to look at the real numbers.
The Temperature Went Up to 130 Degrees
Years ago, Bill James developed a “team temperature” metric to track how hot clubs get. You start at room temperature, which is 72 degrees. Every win adds to that number while every loss takes away from it. I have always loved this system and I track it in my own data. According to ESPN, no team has been hotter or longer this season than the Red Sox. During the apex of their run, Boston reached 130 degrees. No other team this season has reached a higher temperature. Despite consecutive losses to the A’s, the Red Sox stayed above 100 degrees for 28 straight days. This marks the greatest total number of days above 100 degrees for any team this season. Toronto’s loss eventually returned the Red Sox to a still-warm 92 degrees.
Here is the part that is truly wild. Boston’s nadir this season was 14 games under .500 at 32-46. They were just 32 wins deep before they began to heat up. In total, the Red Sox have spent far more days in the cool category than in the warm category. They were cool for 71 days and warm for only 47 days. Boston has been cool 60% of the time this season. However, these Red Sox achieved heat levels unmatched by any team in recent years. According to reports, Boston became just the seventh team in the past 100 years to post a 27-3 record over a 30-game stretch.
This Is Not a Fluke
People love to call a hot streak luck. Luck does not last for 28 days. You do not stay over 100 degrees for a month by accident. The Red Sox were terrible for a long time. They spent 60% of the season in the cold zone. Then they flipped the switch. They won 27 of 30 games. That is a 90% win rate. No one in baseball history has done that often. This team is not a mirage. They are the real deal. The recent losses to Oakland and Toronto show that they can still struggle. But the math says they are the hottest team in the game. You have to respect the data. A 130-degree heat wave is not something you fake.
The question now is what this means for the postseason. If they stay this hot, they will be a nightmare for any opponent. A team that can win 27 of 30 can win a series. They have already proven they can climb out of a deep hole. They started at 32-46 and now they are a force. The AL is wide open. Boston is the team to watch. They have the momentum and the numbers to back it up. Do not count them out just because they lost three in a row.
Sources: NY Post Sports, NY Post Sports, ESPN Top
